Oh, to be a mobile games analyst. It would appear that you can summon up any number when it comes to the value of future markets and have the entire internet aping your wisdom.
Stepping up to the plate today is the latest report from Juniper Research.
Its headline is "Mobile Games Revenues to Surpass $11 Billion Globally by 2015 as In-Game Purchases Overtake Those of Pay-per-Download".
Slow down there, cowboy. Let's pick apart the assumptions...
What's in the box?
The basic assumption is that "revenues from in-game purchases will overtake the traditional pay-per-download model as the primary source of monetising mobile games".
Later in the press release, report author Daniel Ashdown says this will happen in 2013.
Of course, it could happen then, but while mobile in-app purchases are a hot topic in terms of top grossing games on the Apple App Store at the moment, it's not yet clear that they will be as successful even on iOS as they have been on Facebook, let alone on other mobile platforms.
Hare versus tortoise
Assumption 2: My guestimate for 2010 would be that IAP is less than 10 percent of the total mobile games market, which let's not forget is still mainly based on feature phones i.e. Java and Brew games.
For example, Gameloft, one of the most aggressive iPhone publishers, is still posting less than a third of its revenues from iOS, and none of this consists of IAP.
Additionally, in terms of absolute market size, for IAP to overtake paid downloads in 2013, using Juniper's numbers this would suggest the IAP segment would be worth between $4-5 billion. That's a lot of micro-transactions on an unproven model.
How big's the cake?
Continuing with absolute figures - this time for total end-user revenues from mobile games (combined IAP and paid sales), Ashdown reckons this will be $11 billion in 2015.
Rival analyst company Gartner predicted in March 2010 that the mobile games market would be worth $11.4 billion by 2012 however.
Yet, while Gartner is much more bullish than Juniper about the future, it's more conservative when it comes to the present.
Gartner reckoned the mobile gaming market in 2010 would be worth $5.6 billion, while Ashdown reckons the market was worth $6 billion in 2009.
Confused?
Of course. Two years ago, Juniper reckoned the mobile games market would be worth $5.4 billion in 2008, rising to $10 billion in 2013, so even analysts tweak their own figures over the years.
But it's all just numbers plucked out the air, right?
Here's what it looks like in graphical form. It seems that everyone agrees the mobile games market will be worth around $8 billion in 2011.
And, here's a video of the young fella Ashdown talking to his boss.
Juniper's report Mobile Games: App Store Strategies, Business Models & Forecasts 2010-2015 is available now priced £2,500.
You can also get its associated white paper for free.
[source: Juniper]
Data & Research
Contributing Editor
A Pocket Gamer co-founder, Jon is Contributing Editor at PG.biz which means he acts like a slightly confused uncle who's forgotten where he's left his glasses. As well as letters and cameras, he likes imaginary numbers and legumes.
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