Hiya Will. Good point regarding Football Manager - perhaps one for a future Charticle to take a look at. At the time of writing this piece, though, Sonic Jump is priced at 99c, and follows a broadly similar chart trajectory to the other premium-priced Sonic games.
I would suggest Super Monkey Ball was SEGA's "first big hit on mobile". Also Football Manager, which is paid, is consistently at the top of the top grossing. They have recognizable brands that make money at premium price points. Going F2P would requiring lots of changes to the mechanic associated and on a port like After Burner Climax could be hamfisted.
However, no mention of Sonic Jump - F2P for a big character like that is a huge move for the company.