Handset firms have made no secret of the fact that sales are expected to fall this year. Now analyst IDC has made its own prediction, claiming that global shipments will fall by 8.3 per cent in 2009.

That's on the back of worse-than-expected shipments in Q4 2008, which fell 11.6 per cent year-on-year at what's traditionally the most lucrative time of year for handset sales.

IDC's latest report breaks this out by region, predicting that the most developed mobile markets - Japan, the US and Europe - will see shipments decline by between 24.6 per cent and 12.4 per cent this year.

However, the mobile industry's bullishness around emerging markets such as the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) may be misplaced.

IDC reckons their collective growth rate will be just 0.3 per cent in 2009, although admittedly that's more because Russia is set for a big slowdown rather than the other markets performing poorly.

"Expectations for 2009 were negative going into the fourth quarter of 2008. However, worse-than-expected results and a steady flow of negative economic news are indicating that 2009 will be gloomier than predicted," says Ryan Reith, senior research analyst at IDC's Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker.

"Concern is understandable during this time, but note that the mobile phone market still has plenty of room to grow on a global scale and we expect recovery will begin in the first half of 2010."