You won't find many mobile projections that suggest the number of app downloads is going to go any direction but up, up, up in the coming years.
Determining which marketplaces they'll be made on, however, is a more risky science.
For example, ABI Research's latest report suggests the near monopoly hold that Apple's App Store currently enjoys is set to be put to the test.
Marketplace momentum
The firm's belief that the market is likely to become a tighter contest in 2011 is due in large part to the fact that downloads made on marketplaces other than the App Store hit 1.9 billion by the end of 2010.
Throughout the course of last year, 7.9 billion apps were downloaded across all mobile marketplaces, with Apple's App Store finishing 2010 on a cumulative total of 5.6 billion downloads to date according to ABI Research's numbers.
It was the year, however, when the competition collectively got its act together, with research associate Fei Feng Seet suggesting 2011 will be a much closer race.
"The iTunes App Store only targets iOS users; that leaves more room for other platform application stores to step up and focus on 'non-Apple' clientèle," said Seet.
"Android smartphone quarterly shipments now exceed Apples. There is still a long way to go, but accumulated downloads from both Android Market and third-party platforms surpassed 1.9 billion by the end of 2010.
"Android Market currently features more than 130,000 apps in 48 countries, nearly half of iTunes App Stores catalog."
Closing in on all sides
While Android Market is the closest competitor, ABI Research notes there are also other areas of growth.
Operators, in particular, are beginning to open up attractive alternatives making use of white label marketplaces and other players, such as RIM, are beginning to get their act together.
In total, ABI Research estimates downloads on BlackBerry's App World reached more than 1 billion by December.
"RIM has also been making a conscious effort to increase BlackBerrys footprint in the mobile apps market, as seen in its recent aggressive expansion to over 100 markets, and developer conferences it has held in United States and Indonesia," concluded Seet.
ABI Research's take in full, delivered in its Mobile Applications Market Data report, can be downloaded from the firm's website.
Data & Research
With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.
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