Data & Research

IDC reckons Windows Phone 7 will be second largest smartphone platform by 2015

Android to remain in charge for next four years

IDC reckons Windows Phone 7 will be second largest smartphone platform by 2015
If the significance of Nokia's strategic partnership with Microsoft wasn't clear at the time, the flurry of forecasts predicting a share surge for Windows Phone 7 certainly help reinforce implications of the move.

Following on from Ovum's assertion that Microsoft's OS will be the third largest smartphone platform by 2016, IDC has gone one step further, claiming Windows Phone 7 will be second only to Android by 2015.

On the up

IDC has the smartphone market growing by 49.2 percent in 2011, with vendors shipping a total of 450 million units throughout the year – up from just over 303 million in 2010.

It means that the rise of Windows Phone 7, and – more importantly – the continuing dominance of Android, will take place in a market where sales as a whole continue to grow.

"Overall market growth in 2010 was exceptional," said senior research analyst Kevin Restivo, contributor to IDC's worldwide quarterly mobile phone tracker.

"Last year's high market growth was due in part to pent-up demand from a challenging 2009, when many buyers held off on mobile phone purchases. The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010."

The big two

IDC believes 2011 will be the year of Android, moving from the number two spot last year to lead the market throughout the course of 2011.

From then on, Google's platform will hold its position, with its 2015 market share growing to over 45 percent.

In comparison, it predicts iOS and BlackBerry will both see their overall share fall, while what is currently the second largest smartphone platform in IDC's view – Symbian – will fall away entirely, dropping from a 20 percent share in 2011 to a 0.2 share in 2015.

"Up until the launch of Windows Phone 7 last year, Microsoft has steadily lost market share while other operating systems have brought forth new and appealing experiences," added Llamas.

"The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform. We expect the first devices to launch in 2012. By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android."

[source: BusinessWire]

With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.