Data & Research

Windows Phone to topple iOS worldwide by 2016

Windows Phone to topple iOS worldwide by 2016
More than a year on, and the IDC's longterm view that Windows Phone's multi-manufacturer approach will see it overtake iOS in terms of market share hasn't changed.

Despite what the firm admits has been a "slow start" for Microsoft's OS, it still believes its share of the smartphone market will surpass that of iOS in the coming years, though the pace at which it will do so has dropped off a touch.

Still winning

In March 2011, IDC claimed Windows Phone would account for a larger share than iOS by 2015.

That's a deadline that's now been put back a year, with Microsoft grabbing 19.2 percent of the market to Apple's 19 percent.

"Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape," said IDC's Ramon Llamas.

"Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone).

"What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements."

Not so big on BlackBerry

Indeed, while the view that Android will remain top dog is consistent with the projection IDC gave in 2011 - set to hold almost 53 percent of the market in 2016, down a touch from the 61 percent it has now - the firm's take on BlackBerry has changed significantly.

It had previously predicted BlackBerry would boast almost 14 percent of the market by 2015. Now, based on its current share of 6 percent, IDC projects RIM's OS will remain largely stagnant over the next few years, falling by just 0.1 percent to a share of 5.9 percent by 2016.

"There will continue to be a market for BlackBerry OS-powered devices, despite Research In Motion's current woes," IDC concluded.

"However, the gulf between the BlackBerry OS and its primary competition will widen over the forecast as the mobile phone market becomes increasingly software/app-oriented and the 'bring your own device' enterprise trend proliferates."

[source: IDC]

With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.


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