Not only will free releases consolidate their dominant position in the years to come, but the average selling price of all releases - free and paid - will fall to 8 cents by 2017.

That's the take of Strategy Analytics, which claims paid downloads will still amass a global revenue total of $57 billion between 2008 and 2017, despite falling retail prices and a sliding share of the market.

However, the firm claims falling revenues from paid releases and increased app store maintenance costs – essentially marketing – may force marketplaces to offer developers "new revenue streams or higher revenue splits" to keep them on board.

Paying the price

"Paid downloads remain an essential component of the app ecosystem," offered apps research director Josh Martin.

"Paid downloads will remain an important way for smaller developers to monetise their efforts.

"For developers committed to paid downloads transitioning to tablets may be the smartest way to preserve the business model over the long term."

Martin believes stores themselves will see a revenue crunch as more and more developers turn to advertising and other means that generate cash "outside the bounds of the app store" itself.

"Newer platforms such as Windows 8, BlackBerry 10, Tizen and Firefox are building their operating systems and storefronts with this knowledge which should go a long way to making them attractive to developers and end users," he concluded.

[source: Strategy Analytics]