Has Microsoft sold 4.35 million Windows Phone 7s?

Playing the guessing game

Has Microsoft sold 4.35 million Windows Phone 7s?
It's some time since Microsoft published any official sales figures for Windows Phone 7, but that isn't stopping people from taking a stab in the dark.

Indeed, the firm's official declaration that the platform had amassed sales of 2 million units came one week after TheNextWeb had estimated that WP7's userbase had reached that same figure.

Now, using the very same method that lead to that original guess, the site claims current Windows Phone 7 sales stand at 3.38 million, with Microsoft having sold more than 870,000 units in February alone.

Can I have your number?

The site uses a calculation that involves the number of monthly active users of the WP7 Facebook app, which currently stands at 504,972.

"Assuming that Microsoft sold its 2 millionth handset on the 26th of January, the day it announced the number, then it has been 44 days since that last sales count was released," the site states in a post detailing its estimate.

"According to our estimate, subtracting the previous 2 million, 1,378,000 handsets have been sold in the last 44 days, or 31,318 a day. With just 28 days in February that implies that Microsoft moved 877,000 handsets in the month, a number that is far higher than we had anticipated."

Which guess is best?

Of course, the problem with TheNextWeb's projection is that it takes January 26 as the point at which Microsoft passed the 2 million mark.

In fact, closer inspection suggests that the 2 million figure referred to total sales in 2010.

If we take December 31 as the day the 2 millionth handset was hold, that means it's been 75 days since the milestone was passed, rather than 44. As such, the site's rate of 31,318 handsets sold each and every day translates into total sales to date of 4.35 million.

Of course, just whether either calculation is in any way close to the truth won't be known until Microsoft publishes further official figures. If TheNextWeb's daily sales rate is to be believed, WP7 could well pass the 5 million mark on April 6.

[source: TheNextWeb]

With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.