SuperData Research has predicted that Super Mario Run will be download 30 million times and generate $60 million in revenue in its first month of release.
This estimate assumes that six million players will convert to paid players. This would mean a 20% conversion rate for the game.
SuperData notes that the number is significantly lower than Pokemon GO since Super Mario Run has yet to be released on Android. It also suggests that sales will be driven by nostalgia and proximity to Christmas.
The prediction is significantly lower than that of Sensor Tower, which estimated that Super Mario Run will generate $71 million in revenue during its first month from 50 million downloads.
7.1 million paid players isn't beyond the realms of possibility, but SuperData's more conservative estimate seems even more likely to be achieved.