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IDC ups 2010 projections, says smartphone market to grow by 55%

Android predicted to take 25% of market by 2014

IDC ups 2010 projections, says smartphone market to grow by 55%
Given the cluster of smartphones set to launch before the end of the year, research firm IDC's decision to raise its shipment forecasts for 2010 by 10 percent should come as little surprise.

The company now expects the smartphone market to grow by 55.4 percent in 2010 with 269.9 million handsets predicted to ship before the year is out.

Shipments will also grow by 24.5 percent in 2011, year on year.

IDC cites the launch of iPhone 4, BlackBerry Torch and HTC Evo as the reasons behind its raised expectations for the year, with the total handset market also expected to grow by 14.1 percent – up 1.5 percent from its previous forecast.

Going for Google

Despite the notable attention iPhone 4 has drawn to the smartphone market, however, it's Android that the firm believes will lead the industry in the years to come.

"As the worldwide smartphone market continues to grow at a strong rate, the market dynamics among mobile operating systems continue to shift," said IDC senior research analyst Ramon Llamas.

"Android is the wild card, deserving close observation for the rest of this year and the years to come. Phone vendors have been drawn to Android because it allows them to present their own approach to what a smartphone experience can be.

"In addition, users have quickly warmed to Android, comparing it to iOS due to its ease of use and a growing mobile application storefront."

Changing players

Indeed, its IDC's firm belief in Android that colours its projections beyond 2010.

The body states Android's current market share will grow by more than a third to 24.6 percent in 2014, while iOS is expected to fall back by almost 4 percent to a 10.9 percent share as a result.

It's the actual change in the sizes of the respective userbases that is most stark, however.

IDC has Android's userbase rising by more than 50 percent over the course of the next five years, with iOS expected to drop by 25 percent.



Symbian will remain the dominant global player based on IDC's figures, although its market leading share will be cut from 40.1 percent today to 32.9 percent in four years time.

BlackBerry is also set to lose ground, down 0.6 percent to 17.3 percent.

IDC also appears to have little faith in Windows Phone 7's ability to make an impression on the market - despite a projected 43 percent jump in its userbase - predicting Microsoft's OS will sit in fifth place in 2014 on 9.8 percent.

Future focus

The ramifications of IDC's predictions will be interesting, given Apple has previously endorsed the firm's stats by using them to counter NPD's claims that Android had edged ahead of iOS in terms of US sales.

Nevertheless, a four year prediction in a market that changes quickly always has to be taken with a pinch of salt.

For example, PC World notes that IDC's 2010 predictions – made back in 2006 – failed to note the impact of iPhone and Android, simply because neither platform existed at the time.

A quick check back at the figures reveals IDC believed Windows Mobile would have a market leading 32.3 percent share of the global market in 2010, with BlackBerry holding second spot on 14.9 percent.

[source: IDC]

With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.