There's nothing wrong with predictions, at least as long as those doing the predicting understand they're highly likely to be wrong.
It's a subject we've returned to regularly over the years in the context of the various companies who predict the size of the mobile games market.
Our current interest, however, is the size of the Chinese mobile game market.
Three-way disagreement
Three organisations have recently provided some figures.
Less predicting than stating, the China Games Industry Report said sales of mobile games during 2012 were RMB 3.2 billion, up 91 percent on 2011.
Alternatively, iResearch and Sino Market Insight have had a bash a predicting the size of the market in 2015.
As can be clearly seen, both have 'gone high', with Sino Market Insight expecting sales of RMB 10 billion and iResearch $2.2 billion (around RMB 13.5 billion).
Higher, higher
iResearch also reckoned the market would be RMB 5.2 billion in 2013, which would require annual growth of 63 percent from the 'official' 2012 figures - certainly not impossible.
Interestingly, though, Sino Market Insight starts from a much higher baseline, suggesting the market size in 2011 was RMB 3.6 billion, more than double the figure provided by China Games Industry Report.
You can purchase Sino Market Insights' China Mobile Game Industry Report, 2012-2015 for 1,449 here.
Data & Research
Contributing Editor
A Pocket Gamer co-founder, Jon is Contributing Editor at PG.biz which means he acts like a slightly confused uncle who's forgotten where he's left his glasses. As well as letters and cameras, he likes imaginary numbers and legumes.
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