Data & Research

Just how well is the iPhone 5 likely to sell?

Stacking it up against the competition

Just how well is the iPhone 5 likely to sell?
The somewhat muted response by tech commentators and developers alike to Apple's iPhone 5 unveiling hasn't impacted on consumer enthusiasm for the device.

Within 24 hours, 2 million pre-orders had been placed, with the majority of projections pegging week one sales at somewhere between 10-12 million units.

Indeed, some of the analysts that made those predictions – most before the device's unveiling, it should be noted – are now describing such figures as "conservative" according to Apple Insider.

Momentum matters

Of course, even if iPhone 5 does race to 10 million plus by the end of September, such momentum is unlikely to be maintained for all too much longer.

Samsung's Galaxy S III, for instance, had amassed 9 million pre-orders before the end of May.

Launching on 29th of the month, it wasn't until the end of June that Samsung began talking of the handset passing 10 million sales in July, pointing to fairly major drop off in interest.

It's worth noting, of course, that Samsung's Galaxy S III suffered a rather staggered roll out globally.

Nevertheless, if iPhone 5 passes 10 million sold in a week as projected, it will have hit said total at roughly nine times the speed the Galaxy S III hit said milestone, and will be halfway to hitting the 20 million total Samsung's handset passed after 100 days on sale.

It's to Samsung's credit that, when it comes to comparing iPhone 5 pre-orders and sales projection, the Korean firm's flagship is the only other handset on earth that currently delivers comparable figures.

Best of the rest

HTC, LG and Sony Ericsson aren't keen on breaking down their smartphone sales handset by handset, or even range by range.

Nonetheless, quarterly estimates from the likes of IDC suggest that Apple is on track to sell more iPhone 5s than the number of smartphones all three parties sell in an entire quarter – HTC topping the bill with 6.9 million smartphones shipped in Q1 2012.

Nokia, too, is currently left in the shade. The Finnish firm's Lumia range passed cumulative sales of 7 million at the start of September – though momentum is increasing.

Hard as it is to believe, Nokia passed said milestone at a quicker rate than both the original iPhone and Samsung's first smartphone handsets according to Strategy Analytics. Lumia sales have also increased to 4 million units a quarter.

Either way, iPhone 5 looks likely to become Apple's biggest hardware launch to date.

To push Apple past Samsung as the world's #1 smartphone OEM, the Cupertino giant will need to ship upwards of 42 million units a quarter in the longterm – a significant, but not unrealistic, rise from the 26 million sold in Q3 2012.




With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.