GetJar CEO Ilja Laurs predicts Android's #1 status in 2012 but also significant fragmentation and openess issues
Following the $12.5 billion buyout of Motorola from Google, many of those who depend upon the open nature of the Android OS looked on nervously, wondering what the move would mean in the long run.
According to GetJar CEO Ilja Laurs, in his company's annual predictions report, there's every reason to be worried, as he reckons Google will continue to close access to the OS.
He expects Android to drive market growth though, with Nokia needing to keep an eye out as Android's lower market $30-$40 phones will likely push the Finnish firm out of emerging markets.
Closing time
"Android is open in name only and as its success continues, Google will tighten its control over UI, services, app distribution and all aspects of monetisation," said Laurs.
Still, he expects it to become the largest mobile platform, with most developers supported it, some exclusively.
"As Android smartphones and tablets start to heavily outnumber iPhones and iPads, developers will switch to Android as their first, and often only, choice," he reckons.
Hence OEMs will end up turning to the emerging Windows Phone platform.
"By acquiring Motorola and Android closing, Google becomes too big of a threat to OEMs, who hedge their bets with support for Windows Phone. Carriers will pick up more Windows Phones too."
Carrier me home
Other longer term predictions suggest that voice and text services through carriers could be on the way out.
"Skype, Google Talk and others will overtake traditional voice and messaging. Carriers will only run data networks, with little or no consumer facing services," he said.
Laurs also predicts that the paid app will become a thing of the past, with all but the 'super-premium' going free.
On top of that he believes the first provider to utilise the cloud effectively will benefit greatly.
"With the number of screens multiplying exponentially (phones, tablets, laptops, desktops, smart TVs, connected cars, etc.) it will become practical, easy and inexpensive for consumers to move all of their data (photos, videos, emails, documents, address books, etc.) to the cloud," he said.
"The first platform provider to lock in consumers will win."
You can read his 12 predictions here.