GetJar CEO Laurs reckons developers such as Rovio could rake in $100 million in 2011
There's no question that it's in the interests of GetJar CEO Ilja Laurs to play up the role of apps and, more specifically, games in the coming years.
Nevertheless, his prediction that the top studios could see their revenues jump tenfold in 2011 is bound to generate attention, if only because it illustrates the momentum the industry has garnered throughout the course of 2010.
Going for gold
The stark claim was made in a prediction piece for UtalkMarketing.com, where the GetJar founder states the biggest developers in the app business such as Angry Birds creator Rovio, who has worked closely with GetJar over the Android release of its game, could take upwards of $100 million next year.
"Just a year ago, the rubric for a successful app company was to generate revenue in upwards of $10 million," Laurs says in the seven point strong piece.
"Today, the bar for success is ten times that."
Unsurprisingly, Laurs also believes the marketplaces these apps profit from are going to have to change their ways in order to survive.
"In ten years, all closed app systems will need to open up or fail," he continues.
"This won't happen in the next 1-2 years but closed app stores will continue to feel pressure to become more open or else loose competitiveness. Closed ecosystems make it harder for developers to get their apps discovered, shared and monetised."
Marketplace mergers
Even before such a transition takes place, Laurs sees the very number of app stores falling away, thanks in part to a round of mergers and buyouts.
"Just as there were thousands of search engines in existence ten years ago, app stores will experience consolidation," he concludes.
"In five years only six major app store players will make it, and in ten years, only two to three app stores will matter; all other app stores will become app store ghettos."
All aboard Android
Most interestingly of all is Laurs' optimistic outlook in regards to Android tablets.
Describing iPad as an "expensive, niche device", he claims consumers will be drawn to the cheaper, more open nature of Android tablets in 2011.
"Tablets that leverage Android as an operating system (such as the Archos or Samsung Galaxy 10) will benefit from lower price points, open platform, and wide spread availability from common retailers."
It's worth noting that iPad, of course, operates a closed app store. Given the nature of GetJar's business, it's not exactly surprising that Laurs' would be fighting Android's corner.
[source: UtalkMarketing.com]