Beyond attributed ROAS: A three-point audit for mobile game retargeting

Izik Izhaki, the VP of performance at Bigabid, takes a deep dive into mobile games retargeting and what publishers need to know to ensure they're getting the greatest impact.

Attributed ROAS is the metric most retargeting budgets rely on, and it's the right tool for running campaigns day-to-day. What it can't show on its own is how much of the return the spend caused, because it credits every returning user, including those who would have returned organically.

Here are three numbers that tell you how much room you have.

1: Click share of your attributed installs

Retargeting targets users who already know your game; they do not need multiple exposures to re-engage. In a healthy campaign, click-through attribution should represent 85%+ of attributed traffic, while view-through attribution stays under 15%.

This is a standard industry rule of thumb and your fastest sanity check. If view-through carries your numbers, some of those returns may be organic.

2: The Natural Return Rate (NRR)

Every game has users who churn and return with zero ad exposure. That percentage is your Natural Return Rate (NRR). Attributed ROAS counts every return a campaign touched, so it includes those users too. That's why it can't show incremental value on its own.

3: Lift above your Natural Return Rate

Incremental lift is the return above the NRR, and it is the only figure that tells you whether the spend caused anything. Measuring it means holding back a control group and waiting. There are three common ways to build that control group: a random holdout, PSA placebo ads, or ghost bidding, which suppresses bids for a control share inside the auction at no extra media cost. Bigabid uses ghost bidding.

A proper test runs two to three months, and in our experience, a lift of 10-15% in returning paying users is a significant outcome. Bigabid developed its methodology over eight months with one of mobile gaming's largest studios. The studio stays unnamed here; the method is documented in full in the RT 101 retargeting course.

What the right numbers make possible

Audit the click-through share across your retargeting campaigns. If it sits above 85%, view-through isn't inflating your numbers. Next, require your retargeting partner to measure incremental lift against a holdout control group alongside attributed ROAS. Verified lift isn't just a metric. It's the clearest green light to scale your budget.

How to size a control group, how long to wait before reading it, and what a good result looks like are all covered in Bigabid's Retargeting Course.

Izik Izhaki is the VP of Performance at Bigabid.