Soft launch is changing in 2026: How and where should you release your game?

• Matej Lancaric suggests UA is dictating a game's success and scale in the current market.
• Claire Rozain advises testing puzzle games in Eastern Europe and hypercasual games in Southeast Asia.

The soft launch landscape looks set to change in 2026. As technology evolves, so too does user acquisition and data collection.

Where 2025’s soft launches tended towards "cheap volume", 2026 is expected to see a greater emphasis on fine-tuning, sophisticated onboarding, and data-backed scalability.

Ahead of their panel on the topic at Pocket Gamer Connects London on January 20th, we speak with marketing consultant Matej Lancaric and RZAIN Consulting CEO Claire Rozain about predictions for the future of soft launches, shifting priorities, and where to soft launch a mobile game in 2026.

"We are entering an era where UA equals product, no matter the genre. User acquisition, especially creative frameworks, are dictating the game's success and scale. It’s all about sophisticated onboardings," says Lancaric.

This follows companies pushing "functional" games and improving numbers in soft launch in 2025, as per his Soft Launch Bible.

Rozain shares: "A successful soft launch in 2026 will be a strategic, data-rich incubation focused on stress-testing the game's long-term monetisation depth and community play patterns in specific, non-traditional markets before entering the US or Western Europe."

Regional relevance and the strength of Eastern Europe

Lancaric advises developers to soft launch in English-speaking countries first to help with early feedback, though notes there is "no one-size-fits-all". He suggests considering a country’s Android penetration, especially if testing on Android first, and ensuring that people in the test market reflect the real audience.

"If you’re launching a midcore game aimed at a male audience, Poland is still one of my favourite picks. However, Poland might not be the best fit for a female-oriented casual game," he gives as an example.

Rozain suggests Türkiye or Brazil for soft launching a midcore game, arguing their advantages when testing "competitive meta and payment integration".

She also highlights Poland, but unlike Lancaric, suggests the country as a testing point for social casino and puzzle games. Other parts of Eastern Europe like Romania may also be beneficial for testing social features.

And, for hypercasual games and titles monetised through ads, she recommends Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines or Indonesia. These can be effective countries to test ad tolerance.

"Forget Canada and Australia. Match your game's core monetisation to a region's user behaviour," Rozain recommends.

Lancaric adds that developers could use their past experience to inform soft launch regions, or could get data from Meta audience tools to predict expected CPI and genre popularity.

The purpose of a soft launch

In tandem with this move away from traditional markets, the goals of a soft launch may also shift in 2026. Rozain believes the “primary objective" of a soft launch will change from validating basic KPIs to conducting deep, AI-powered creative discovery.

Developers should learn from their soft launch which social media content builds the greatest trust and conversion, according to Rozain. They should also determine which gameplay outcomes - a collection milestone or a puzzle solution, for example - are most effective in rewarded placements.

"Success will not just be a 40% Day 1 retention or target Day 7 ROAS, but the definitive, data-backed identification of a game's creative DNA across key networks," says Rozain. "This is achieved by deploying platforms like AppsFlyer's Creative Optimisation, which uses AI to automatically tag and analyse creative performance at the element leve."

This year, a successful soft launch should answer specific questions like what animation style drives the lowest CPI on Meta, or which combination of cultural theme and audio hook leads to the highest engagement on TikTok.

"This granular creative learning transforms the soft launch from a feasibility study into a scalable creative blueprint," Rozain adds.

"It provides the empirical foundation for rapidly iterating ad concepts and confidently allocating global launch budgets, ensuring the game enters the global arena with creatives already proven to captivate its core audience."

Lancaric dives deeper into onboarding. He says that everyone is hunting for the lowest possible CPI and "pulling every trick in the book to get there", drawing particular attention to social casino games.

Often presenting themselves as idle games, he notes there may be no hints of casino gameplay on store pages, and that players may start out a game with an idle or simulation experience before transitioning to the core casino gameplay.

"Onboarding has become the new creative cheat code," he says. "This is something you have to figure out in the retention stage of a soft launch now. Find the right onboarding."

Going global

We ask the PGC panellists when the right time is to transition from soft launch to global launch.

Lancaric suggests any quarter but Q4, because of the competition from e-commerce and Christmas. He adds that, 10 years ago, he was also more cautious to avoid clashing with a big game launch "because there was no point in competing", but this is no longer the case.

Meanwhile, Rozain suggests the right time is "when you have predictable, repeatable unit economics in at least one Whale Nursey region".

She explains: "Focus on when your game is ready to retain and monetise, when the cost to acquire a profitable user stabilises, allowing for confident LTV forecasting in Tier 1 markets."

The pair will also discuss soft launches at Pocket Gamer Connects London, which takes place on January 19th and 20th. Grab yout ticket now to learn from the experts, meet them at the show and network with thousands of industry professionals.