Though there are plenty of analysts and financial advisers who have been swept away by iPad's pending launch, there are also those who believe the device's first year might come with a more conservative edge to it.

Following MF Global analyst Per Lindberg's assessment that Apple is heading up an overstretched and over valued communications sector, Sarah Rotman Epps of Forrester Research has gone on record with her prediction that iPad will sell a mere 3 million units in 2010.

Cooling down the heat

That's significantly down on many projections, Apple suppliers having recently suggested they expect 8-10 million units to be shipped to retail before the year is out.

Sky News also recently cited unnamed analysts as claiming that as many as 9 million of those may be in the hands of consumers by the turn of the year.

However, according to Rotman Epps, while iPad has much to offer, Apple's going to have to change the way we think about computers before it can hope the shift the level of volume many are expecting.

Life in the cloud

"We think there’s a fundamental disconnect between the design of the device and the profile of the customer who would most benefit from using it," she says in a post on mocoNews.

"The early adopter technophiles can't wait to get their hands on an iPad, but the consumer who could really benefit from this device is your less tech-savvy mother-in-law."

Rotman Epps believes Apple has simply made one too many assumptions about the kind of people who could make use of iPad – the most crucial being assuming that everyone lives in 'the cloud'.

She believes the lack of ports on iPad is "not ideal for the casual PC user, who doesn't want to buy special docks and dongles to input photos from her camera or to print something".

"This is a pretty futuristic assumption, and it's not clear that mainstream consumers are ready for this," she continues. "Does your mother-in-law store her data in the cloud?"

Apple acolytes

Forrester's prediction of 3 million units – which was actually made as far back as January – is a result of their analysts' collective belief that to push beyond this figure will require Apple convincing potential customers to change their computing habits.

While many will see iPad as a product of desire, few will actually be willing to leave their laptops behind.

"To sell this device to more than just Apple acolytes, Apple will need to teach consumers not just a new way of using this particular device, but an entirely new way of computing," she concludes.

"The iPad's cultural impact will far surpass the number of units it sells. It may be only 3 million people that buy the iPad this year, but the number that will reimagine how they use devices will be far greater."

[source: mocoNews]