If enough analysts make enough predictions, one of them is bound to be right.
For months now, speculation has mounted regarding the possibility of a new iPhone, most likely aimed at emerging markets.
Dubbed iPhone 4S, the latest thinking is such a handset in name at least may launch in late September or early October.
What's in a name?
However, rather than launching as a smaller, cheaper alternative to the existing iPhone 4, numerous commentators are now claiming it could well be its full blown successor.
FBR Capital Markets analyst Craig Berger has said the handset one believed to be iPhone 5 currently has the in-house name of 'N94', and will in fact retail as iPhone 4S when it hits the shelves.
It would represent an 'evolutionary upgrade' to iPhone 4 - akin to the transition between iPhone 3 and iPhone 3GS - rather than a full blown redesign. Berger also stated, in contrast, the supposed budget iPhone doesn't exist.
No low-end
Instead, fellow analyst BMO Capital's Keith Bachman believes Apple will unofficially use the existing iPhone 3GS to compete against Android in emerging markets, serving the handset up as a low-end alternative.
"We believe that the [existing] 3GS will be the low-end iPhone," Bachman said in a note.
Both Bachman and Berger stand in opposition to Deutsche Bank's Chris Whitmore, who has stated a mid-range, contract free $300-$500 iPhone will launch in September.
"It's time for a mid-range iPhone," Whitmore said in his own note, stating said device will, confusingly, be named iPhone 4S.
The pre-paid device, he added, would best take advantage of the 1 billion pre-paid mobile subscribers if priced at around $349.
Touching the future
"Apple shipped (about 87 million) units over the past 2 years which suggests it has reached only 6 percent penetration of its current addressable subscribers," he noted.
"Looking forward, we believe Apple has room to run both in terms of greater market penetration as well as incremental carrier additions going forward.
"Using this framework, we believe an 8GB iPod touch with an RF module could be priced ~$350 (unlocked without a contract) and still generate healthy manufacturing margins of ~53 percent."
In truth, Whitmore's view sounds more like healthy guesswork backed up by business thinking than a genuine insight on Apple's plans.
Indeed, as things stand, it appears the firm will shirk launching a new low-end device, instead launching iPhone 4S as a standard follow-up to its existing handset.
[source: Apple Insider]
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With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.
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