Feature

20 mobile games predictions for 2009

What we think might happen to the industry this year

20 mobile games predictions for 2009
Happy new year! And 2009 is shaping up as a big year for mobile gaming, both in terms of the opportunities and the challenges.

With that in mind, we've put together a few predictions about what we think will (or might) happen to the industry. Read on, and let us know what you think.

1. There'll be a glut of console ports on iPhoneProbably around February time. Why? Because lots of publishers commissioned them last year, around the time that Sega was revealing stellar iPhone sales for Super Monkey Ball. And the problem may be that many of these games will hit the App Store at the same time. Expect some publishers who see the App Store as a licence to print money to be disappointed.

2. N-Gage will soar or fail

2009 is make or break year for N-Gage, if our sources are to be believed. It could be make, because the platform will be embedded in some of Nokia's biggest handsets in the coming months, turning it into the mass market mobile gaming platform it was intended to be. But it could be break, because if N-Gage doesn't get enough traction by the end of the year, Nokia might can it.

3. At least one mobile games firm will be sued for IP infringement

We're not saying which one(s), but we think 2009 will be the year people stop complaining about mobile games ripping off console titles or other mobile games, and start suing.

4. Namco Bandai to be the dark horse of 2009

With numerous firms exiting the industry or scaling down their investment, watch out for Namco Bandai, which has been quietly been ramping up its ambitions in Europe to match its success in North America and its native Japan.

5. Gizmondo won't take the mobile gaming world by storm when it's relaunched

Just a hunch.

6. App Stores for everyone

We've already got the App Store and Android Market, with Palm and BlackBerry application stores on the way. Expect all other handset makers and mobile operators to launch app store wannabes in 2009, touting their openness to developers and their slick user interfaces. Few of them will be as slick and efficient as the original App Store, though.

7. Playfish will make a splash on iPhone

We've been following Playfish closely in 2008, and not just because the social games company was set up by a bunch of ex Glu staff. Having taken the Facebook app charts by storm, we predict iPhone will be the next frontier for Playfish, who together with the likes of Zynga and SGN will make social games a much more important category on Apple's devices.

8. Something big will happen at Glu Mobile

Okay, that's a vague prediction, but something needs to happen at Glu. The company itself says it's exploring "a number of alternatives to expand the liquidity" in the face of a low share price and speculation that it might run out of cash. We think Glu is more likely to be bought than to go bust in 2009, but at the very least something needs to happen to bolster the publisher's financial footing.

9. Lots of music mobile games

As publishers wake up to the success on console of Guitar Hero and Rock Band, expect a flood of mobile music games. Hopefully some will be more innovative/interesting than just tapping along to MIDI tunes.

10. There'll be at least one big breakout mobile game

By which we mean a mobile game that breaks out of the relatively narrow consumer base of this industry, and becomes a big phenomenon in the wider world. It might not be a standalone mobile game - we have a hunch it might be some kind of cross-platform Facebook/web/mobile title - but whatever it is, it'll be a bona-fide craze, and will have all your friends talking about mobile gaming.

11. The bottom will fall out of the crazy-licences market

Paying over the odds for movie licences that probably won't make your money back? It's time to put that strategy back on the shelf, folks. Please.

12. Apple will introduce a premium games section on the App Store

We've been hearing rumours about this for a few weeks now - the idea that Apple will find a way to promote premium games on the App Store, or at the very least separate out free titles and Lite demos from the paid-for games. However, we'd be surprised if this also means shutting out talented indie developers in favour of the big firms - that's not Apple's way of doing things.

13. The N-Gage client will finally come out for the Nokia N73 just as the last N73 owner upgrades to another handset

You know this is true.

14. Microsoft will do something big in mobile gaming

We're still waiting for the long-promised Live Anywhere Xbox-to-PC-to-mobile gaming service, but we sense 2009 will be the year when Microsoft wakes up more to the potential of mobile gaming. Even if it's just to license more of its brands to mobile publishers. Or they could launch an Xbox Mobile division by buying Glu...

15. There'll be a big media scandal around a mobile game

We've already had a taste of this with the mini-furore around unreleased iPhone game Underworld, but we think 2009 will see a proper scare-story around a mobile game. We suspect it may be related in some way to child safety and location-based gaming.

16. Games will be a big deal at the Mobile World Congress show in February

MWC (formerly 3GSM) has a traditional hype cycle - games were big a few years ago, then music, then TV, then social networking... We sense that games could be due a rebirth of hype at 2009's show, as handset makers strive to show how good their iPhone-killer phones are.

17. Ad-funded mobile games will grow in prominence, but slowly

On the one hand, there's clear momentum behind companies like Greystripe and AdMob in terms of selling ads in mobile games, but on the other, 2008 is set to be a tough year for any relatively new advertising channel, with budgets being cut and brands in risk-averse mode. So ad-funded mobile games won't flop or soar, but they will continue to grow - aided by operator launches like T-Mobile and Orange.

18. Another gaming craze will get mobile clones

We've had brain training, virtual dog games and motion-sensing bowling, so what's the next DS craze to transfer to mobile? Our prediction: virtual babysitting.

19. Mobile games PR will shift to social media

Forget blasting out a press release to a media who largely don't care much for mobile games. In 2009, the emphasis on building buzz around your company's games will be more about using blogs, YouTube, Twitter and other social media.

20. Somebody will launch a dedicated mobile gaming handset

Apart from Gizmondo, we mean. Our money's on Samsung.
Contributing Editor

Stuart is a freelance journalist and blogger who's been getting paid to write stuff since 1998. In that time, he's focused on topics ranging from Sega's Dreamcast console to robots. That's what you call versatility. (Or a short attention span.)