Five months after rolling out in the US, UK and other major territories, Google's Nexus 10 could well have sold less than 1 million units to date.
That's according to freelance strategy consultant Benedict Evans, who has made said calculation based on Google's development data, owing to the fact Nexus 10 manufacturer Samsung is yet to publish any official sales figures.
Bigger is better?
Evans refers to the fact that Asus, which manufacturers the smaller Nexus 7 for Google, disclosed tablet sales of 5.35 million in the second half of 2012, with the Google-branded device likely to account for the bulk.
Using both the Nexus 7 and Nexus 10's screen profiles which he describes as "relatively uncommon" - he then took a look at Google's developer data to ascertain just how many Android users are accessing the OS using the Samsung tablet's "xlarge XHDPI" display.
The Nexus 10 launched in November 2012
The Nexus 10, he concludes, accounts for 0.1 percent of Android's base, which he pegs at around 680 million worldwide. As such, that would mean there are around 680,000 Nexus 10s being used around the globe.
"Rounding obviously applies to both of those numbers '0.1 percent' could actually be '0.149 percent', which would be 1.01 million," notes Evans.
"I don't believe there are any other devices on sale using either screen profile, but if there were that would obviously push the Nexus numbers down."
The rest of the pack
Evans adds that such a figure would compare unfavourably to Apple's iPad sales, which hit 22.9 million during the quarter ended 29 December 2012 alone, and even Microsoft's Surface, which is rumoured to have amassed sales of at least 1.5 million to date.
Microsoft, however, is yet to make any figures public, though production was reportedly ramped up when demand for the Surface Pro outstripped supply.
Of course, tablets failing to make a mark in a market dominated by iPad is no new story. As many of rivals will attest, the tablet sector is not only led by Apple and its iPad, but defined by it.
Early on, HP's TouchPad and Motorola's much-hyped Xoom failed to dent Apple's share one jot, while even Samsung's Galaxy Tab range believed by many to be the nearest challenger to Apple still struggles to steal iPad's thunder, even today.
[source: Benedict Evans]
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With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.
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