Could Android overtake iPhone by 2013?

Yes, apparently

Could Android overtake iPhone by 2013?
According to mobile analyst IDC, Google’s Android mobile OS will overtake the BlackBerry and iPhone by 2013, with an install base of 390 million devices - an increase of 68 million.

For this to happen, Android will need to grow at a 20.9 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the 2009-2013 forecast period.

Considering some of the successes with the HTC Hero, Motorola Droid/Milestone and Google’s own Nexus One, and the ever-increasing support from developers, it comes perhaps as no surprise.

Apple effectively has one device against many (unless the iSlate changes things), and Blackberry is battling against the arguably trendier new kids on the block.

Should the forecast prove accurate, this would put Android firmly in second place behind Symbian, Nokia’s open-source OS. The IDC suggests that the reason for Symbian’s continued dominance will be down to the strength of Nokia’s popularity outside North America.

The IDC went on to say Linux will apparently falter, as will webOS. The former because of Android, the latter because of its Palm-only restrictions, despite the announcement of two new Palm devices, the Pre Plus and Pixi Plus.

Stephen D. Drake, vice president, Mobility and Telecom says, “Mobile operating systems have become the key ingredient in the highly competitive mobile device market."

"Although the overall look and feel of the device will still play an important role in the buying process, the wrong choice of operating system coupled with an awkward user interface can mean the difference between success and failure.”

Considering the evidence, and a look at the leaked HTC roadmap, the IDC can’t be too wrong in its predictions, can it?


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