Like iPad before it, early sales of iPhone 4 are already getting analysts and commentators alike in a spin, with the two now rushing to up their estimates in the wake of pre-order pandemonium.

As a result, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has revealed in an investor note that he now expects Apple to sell 9.5 million iPhone 4s in the June quarter – that's up 1 million from his original projection.

AT&T boost

According to Munster, it's not just overwhelming demand for the handset which has caused him to revise his estimates, but also AT&T's decision to bring forward existing iPhone users' eligibility for upgrade deals by up to six months.

"Specifically, we believe that the 8.4 million iPhone users activated at AT&T between the September 2008 and June 2009 quarters will be eligible for upgrade pricing," says Munster in the note.

Munster also cites a recent poll in the Wall Street Journal that suggests 62 percent of current iPhone owners plan to upgrade to iPhone 4.

"These numbers imply that 5.2 million AT&T [subscribers] could upgrade to iPhone 4," he continues.

"Assuming 25 percent upgrade at launch and the remaining 75 percent upgrade later, out analysis implies 1.3 million iPhone 4 upgrades on AT&T in the June quarter."

Keeping pace

Munster sees sales holding strong afterwards, predicting a further 9.5 million units being shifted in the September quarter – although that represents a rise of only 500,000 units from his original stance.

Fellow analyst Maynard Um of UBS believes iPhone 4 will have a cracking start, with 1 million units sold on day one, but his June quarter are – by his own admission – more conservative, having pencilled in sales of 8 million in total.
MacNN