It might seem odd for analysts to be talking down a market leader, but no-one underestimates the amount of earth Nokia is having to move to switch from Symbian to Windows Phone.
As such, though ABI Research's numbers published on Fierce Wireless proclaim Nokia the world's largest mobile manufacturer in Q4 2011, analyst Michael Morgan isn't convinced the Finnish firm will remain top dog for all too long.
Aiming for a win
According to ABI's assessment, Nokia boasted 27 percent market share across the globe throughout the quarter, with Samsung in second on 23 percent.
Both firms are well ahead of the rest of the competition, with Apple - on 9 percent - edging out Android specialists ZTE on 6 percent and LG and Huawei on 4 percent.
Breaking the individual performances down, however, Nokia's sliding smartphone shipments down from 28.3 million in Q4 2010 to 19.6 million in Q4 2011 are a worrying sign, if only because the company has bet the farm on Windows Phone.
"With no plan B, Nokia is in a race to outpace its decreasing Symbian smartphone sales by growing its Windows Phone shipments," says Morgan.
"Nokia states it had shipped over 1 million WP7 devices to a limited set of markets, which raises the question, will a US launch of WP7 be enough to turn the tide for Nokia? ABI Research is not so sure."
Top of the table
Indeed, though Apple is in third spot when it comes to overall shipments discounting the undefined 'others' category the company is currently tussling it out at the top with Samsung when it comes to smartphones.
"Looking through 2012, ABI Research believes all eyes will be on the competition between Samsung and Apple as the two handset OEMs that are pulling away from the field," continues Morgan.
"ABI Research believes that Samsung has a strong chance to become number one by the end of 2012."
This two-way battle at the top, however, has an impact that reaches beyond Nokia. ABI Research believes BlackBerry manufacturer RIM will also have to up its game in 2012 if it's to stay in touch.
"As Apple and Samsung continue to suck the air out of the room, RIM has installed a new CEO and delayed the release of its upcoming BB10 smartphones until Q4 2012.
"2012 looks to be a very trying and pivotal year for RIM as it seeks to make a Nokia style transition to a new platform while continuing to support weakened legacy platforms."
[source: Fierce Wireless]
Data & Research
With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.
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