Despite PS Vita's continued sticky start in Japan the latest Media Create figures pegging weekly sales at just over the 12,000 mark Sony could shift a total of 12.4 million units worldwide before the end of 2012.
That's based on projections released by Strategy Analytics, with Sony's marketing might in both North America and Europe resulting in year one revenue of more than $2.2 billion from hardware sales alone.
Price play
Such targets comes with some notable caveats, however.
To spur sales on post launch and, most notably, enable Sony to take on the surging smartphone market, Strategy Analytics states those in charge will need to entertain a price drop before the end of the year.
The handheld's lack of traction in Japan is a particular concern, it's claimed, with week one sales of more than 300,000 units in Sony's home territory now a distance memory.
"In the time of austerity, consumers are considerably sensitive to prices, and Nintendo proved that a price cut can save a product," said Strategy Analytics in a statement.
"Their decision to slash the price of 3DSs from $249 to $169 revived sales of the console. Sony now is experiencing the same story in Japan."
Software star
If Sony can use the tools in its arsenal to secure a respectable userbase in year one, the revenue generated by software sold via PS Vita's marketplace PlayStation Store could aid company-wide efforts to revive Sony's flagging business.
"The real value of the PlayStation Vita is its drive for content revenue growth and its strategic position in Sonys entertainment ecosystem," said senior connected home devices analyst Jia Wu.
"We believe that PlayStation Vita will cause Sony's 2012 portable console software revenue to grow by $800 million compared with 2011.
"Although its too small a device to turn the company around in terms of financial contribution, we expect it to bring in $2 billion incremental revenue from both hardware and software sales in 2012."
It's an ecosystem thing
Moving forward, the company claims Sony's move to make content available across both PS Vita and PlayStation 3 will boost its position against the likes of Apple and Microsoft.
Both rivals are in the process of forming greater ties between their respective ecosystems - Microsoft in particular looking to link Windows Phone closely with Windows 8, which is set to roll out across both PC and tablets.
In respect of the handheld market, however, hitting 12.4 million units in 2012 would bring PS Vita in behind 3DS, which shipped more than 15 million units in its first 10 months on sale.
Nintendo's latest handheld recently became the fastest console to sell 5 million units in Japan, though its performance pre-price cut which saw its RRP slashed by 40 percent six months after launch was sluggish.
It took 3DS 13 weeks to hit sales of 1 million units in Japan more than three times slower than the original Nintendo DS.
[source: Strategy Analytics]
Data & Research
With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.
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