Fraser MacInnes is a mobile games industry professional who cut his teeth writing for Pocket Gamer.
He's now working for Danke Games, a new gaming start up based in the heart of the Black Forest in Germany.
At the time of writing, just hours have passed since Sony revealed the successor to the PlayStation 3.
Predictably, there were tech demos, there were some actual demos and there were some really realistic looking explosions.
Having spent my last column proselytising for unconsoles such as the Ouya and GameStick, I find myself wondering if another expensive box with a new number suffixed to its name is really what I want out of gaming these days.
Indeed, I fundamentally wonder whether I want invest in a future of home entertainment that's so resolutely bound by hardware.
Ripe for disruption
The other day, an industry friend of mine who spent a major chunk of their career working for a major console publisher in Silicon Valley, pronounced boldly over lunch, "consoles are dead."
"The future is tablet devices," he went on. "Whoever figures out the magic glue that connects them to TVs is going to permanently disrupt the industry."
Whether that's true or not, it feels like the PS4 (and Microsoft's inevitable riposte), are products that are in dire need of disruption.
Sony's effort builds on its previous three console launches with the same, "bigger, better, faster, more" approach, leaving 'new' and 'different' completely sidelined.
Geekonomics
It is, as so many things are, a question of economics. Console gaming is not the only show in town anymore and spending habits have changed.
After the PS4 launches, a consumer will be able to go and pick up a machine for maybe 400 euros, dollars or pounds (no official price as yet).
Then they'll need to plump an additional 50-60 bucks for a game. That's an initial outlay of 460 bucks just to be able to play a single game.
For audiences that have been gorging themselves on free or cheap titles on tablets and phones, it's hard to imagine how the traditional economics of console hardware and software pricing will match modern consumer behavior in a scalable way.
Game dev story
Then there are developers. Consoles need games and launch consoles need a crap load of them at once.
Assuming Sony or Microsoft convince a handful of studios to collectively assemble 15-20 launch window titles what is the overall financial burden of bringing those games to market?
Maybe $20-30 million to develop each and then at least $10 million each to market them?
Even being super conservative with the numbers, we're talking about the best part of a billion dollars for the chance to trudge through stringent approval processes and exorbitant licensing fees.
Is this something developers are willing to do nowadays, when even the biggest publishers in the world are seeing the most significant portfolio growth come from titles like The Simpsons: Tapped Out on mobile?
It's interesting to note EA's complete absence at the PS4 launch event, by the way.
The sorcerer's adhesive
Let's get back to the magic glue scenario. I spoke last month about the technology trajectory of mobiles versus traditional console technology (as did Fishlabs' Michael Schade, last week).
Eight year cycles for traditional consoles leave an open goal for phones and tablets that iterate hardware every twelve to eighteen months.
It's not inconceivable to envisage that, in the PS4's natural lifetime, it will be outgunned by mobile devices. When that happens, shouldn't it be your phone or your tablet that sends games to your TV?
What happens if Apple decides to actually start marketing the Apple TV and its ability to stream games via Airplay? What happens if an unconsole takes off?
What if any sub 100 dollar box starts allowing you to seamlessly send games from your phone to your TV, no matter what platform is in your pocket?
Call me mad, but why then would you spend an additional truck of money on another platform that does exactly the same thing, but with less flexibility?
Devices, not experiences, will change
Consoles are starting to wake up to the mobile angle, though the realizations have been either lacking in scope (hello Xbox SmartGlass) or ham-fisted (hello Wii U, the Fisher Price iPad).
The living room, big TV game experience will never go away it's just too much fun. Similarly, consoles like those manufactured by Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft are also here to stay (though I'd wager they will become more niche over the next decade).
What will change is the device paradigm for the living room and on that front, the PS4, amazing as the explosions it can render may be, feels like a very high tech relic.
Your turn Microsoft
You can follow Fraser's industry commentary on his blog, or else grab bite-size rants via Twitter.
Feature
PocketGamer.biz regularly posts content from a variety of guest writers across the games industry. These encompass a wide range of topics and people from different backgrounds and diversities, sharing their opinion on the hottest trending topics, undiscovered gems and what the future of the business holds.
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