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Gartner's accuracy questioned when it comes to Android's US surge

Are the numbers fudged?

Gartner's accuracy questioned when it comes to Android's US surge
The supposed strength of Android in the US has been called into question before – most notably by Apple, which questioned the NPD Group's methods when it pitched its quarterly sales of Google's platform at a higher rate than iPhone.

The attacks levelled at Gartner, however, are somewhat more serious, with commentators cited in a report on Apple Insider suggesting the research firm has inflated Android's numbers in its most recent stats release in order to satisfy its own narrative.

Android anomaly

The discrepancy centres around the 25.5 percent year on year increase in Android's share of the OS market, despite a fall in share for some of its biggest exponents – Samsung, LG and Sony Ericsson.

Its an anomaly Apple Insider claims can only be explained by a rise in 'Other' category, which has seen its share more than double since Q3 2009 according to Gartner's numbers.

"The huge difference in reported phone sales allowed Gartner to describe a huge category of 'Other' - unnamed phone vendors who the firm claims are now collectively selling low end phones at an astoundingly high growth rate well above the rapidly growing HTC and Apple, and incredibly far above the industry average growth rate," Apple Insider says in its report.

"The 'Other' category ballooned dramatically from 49.8 million units to 137.8 million, a fantastic increase that gobbled up twice as much market share as Gartner assigned to 'everyone else' a year ago."

Small vendors, big sales

It's suggested the only way Android could have garnered such growth is if Gartner is assuming the majority of 'Other' handsets are running Google's OS.

That's something the site takes issue with, given large portions of the obscure manufacturers lumped into the category sell their handsets in emerging markets for less than $100.

Though it's fair to say some Android handsets are priced competitively, the platform rarely comes in at less than $100 a handset.

"While Android has helped Motorola, HTC and Samsung to deliver popular new models, Gartner's data does not indicate that its fantastic growth rates for 'Other' Android makers are coming from sales of the popular Droid, Incredible and Galaxy models," the site adds.

"Instead, the vast majority of Gartner's reported growth in Android is coming from unnamed companies more obscure than even ZTE and Huawei, and all small enough not to figure into Gartner's top tepee vendor brand list."

The numbers game

So, if the commentators Apple Insider cites have a point, why exactly would Gartner be upping its Android share unnecessarily?

According to a comment made by an unnamed former IDC employee in response to an article by Fortune, research firms often adjust numbers to fit the view they're trying to sell.

He claims it's not uncommon for firms to use the numbers to deliver a set take on the market – showing the balance tipping one way or the other – rather than delivering the actual sales numbers, which might not present quite so clear a picture.

"The fudge is in the 'Others' category, which is used as a plug to make the numbers work out," he told the site.

"In fairness, we did do survey work, calling around, and attending white box conferences and venues to try to get a feel for that market, but in the end, the process was political.

"I used to tell customers which parts of the data they could trust, essentially the major vendors by form factor and region. The rest was garbage."

[source: Apple Insider]

With a fine eye for detail, Keith Andrew is fuelled by strong coffee, Kylie Minogue and the shapely curve of a san serif font.