Creating games is not a simple process; there are many things to consider at various stages of production. Not to mention, it all needs to start with a good idea, though people need to be interested in playing it for the title to be a success.
As part of Pocket Gamer Connects Helsinki Digital, Resistance Games creative director Jussi Autio took to the stage to discuss making sales predictions for premium PC Games.
It is important to make correct predictions; it would be unfortunate to develop a game to discover that nobody wants to play it.
What to consider
Furthermore, another vital consideration is the number of sales, distribution, the cut from developer and publisher, the engine's cut, VAT, game price and the price difference between different countries.
Sales effect on the average price.
"If the game is a success, making some predictions on DLC could bring money in," said Autio.
DLC's are a great way to make some extra cash should the game prove to be popular. Consider how many players will buy at least on DLC on top of the base game, from there a developer should determine how many expansion packs it may create.
Also, it is important to be grounded, be a realist and not work on wishful thinking.
Creating a spreadsheet can help when it comes to making predictions, aiding a developer in determining whether or not it is worth pursuing the project. Following all information, with a realistic outlook, a developer can see what the predicted income of the game would be and hope many copies would need to be sold.
The basics of the spreadsheet should be clear. Furthermore, it is essential to bear recoup clauses in mind as they will determine when a developer is granted the money and how much it will receive.
Steamspy is a good way to get estimations. However, games that sell under 30,000 will have data that is not overly accurate. Moreover, it is also a cheap option.
Furthermore, building scenarios is a vital tool in making predictions. Look at the best possible outcomes - creating a top hit, for example. But then, it is crucial to weigh up what is realistic. Think about the team's experience, a publisher's expertise and how risky the concept of the game is.
Pocket Gamer Connects Helsinki Digital is the best of our Pocket Gamer Connects conference in an online form, with an entire week of talks, meetings, and pitch events taking place from September 14th to the 18th. You can read up on all the tracks taking place throughout the week here.